Hibiscus Coast Holiday Rentals: What Do the Numbers Really Tell Us?

Two respected short-term-rental datasets paint markedly different pictures of the Hibiscus Coast market. But the biggest lesson for property investors isn't which number is right — it's understanding what the numbers actually measure.

If you are considering buying property on the KZN South Coast as a holiday or short-term rental, there is a question worth asking before looking at potential returns:

How reliable is the market data you're using to make the decision?

That question became particularly interesting when we compared two current short-term-rental datasets covering the Hibiscus Coast, KwaZulu-Natal.

AirDNA's latest data, updated in July 2026 and covering performance through June 2026, reports 2,435 active short-term-rental listings and average occupancy of 36%.

AirDNA also reports that active listings increased by 5.2% year-on-year, revenue per listing increased by 13.7%, occupancy increased by 10.0%, average daily rate increased by 7.8%, and RevPAR increased by 13.3% between June 2025 and June 2026.

AirROI's current dataset for the Hibiscus Coast Local Municipality, covering July 2025 to June 2026, reports 969 active Airbnb listings and average occupancy of 23.2%.

At first glance, those numbers appear to tell two very different stories.

So which one should an investor believe?

THE ANSWER IS MORE COMPLICATED THAN YOU MIGHT THINK

The first mistake would be to assume that one provider must simply be wrong.

The datasets are not necessarily measuring exactly the same universe.

AirDNA says its Hibiscus Coast dataset tracks active short-term rentals across Airbnb, Vrbo and Booking.com, with listings de-duplicated across channels.

AirROI's published figure is specifically for its Hibiscus Coast Local Municipality Airbnb dataset.

There are therefore important methodological differences to consider, including geographic definition, platform coverage, listing identification, data collection and filtering.

In other words, “Hibiscus Coast” does not automatically mean exactly the same dataset everywhere.

That distinction matters.

A property investor could take a headline occupancy figure, apply it to a property they are considering, calculate an apparently attractive return and make a multimillion-rand decision — without first establishing whether the underlying dataset actually describes the property, location and market segment they are entering.

AIRDNA'S NUMBERS SHOW MOMENTUM — BUT NOT A GUARANTEE

AirDNA's current Hibiscus Coast data contains some encouraging signals.

From June 2025 to June 2026:

• Active listings increased 5.2%

• Revenue per listing increased 13.7%

• Occupancy increased 10.0%

• Average daily rate increased 7.8%

• RevPAR increased 13.3%

AirDNA defines RevPAR as revenue per available rental night, combining occupancy and daily rate to provide a measure of revenue generated per available night.

At face value, revenue growing faster than supply is an encouraging signal.

It suggests that the additional supply entering the market has not prevented the overall market from recording stronger revenue performance.

But there is another number investors should notice: 36% average annual occupancy.

That means that, across AirDNA's tracked market, listings were booked for roughly 36% of available nights over the year.

That is a crucial distinction.

A market can experience strong year-on-year revenue growth while still having significant periods of unoccupied inventory.

For an investor, the question is therefore not simply, “What is the average nightly rate?”

It is, “How many nights can my specific property realistically sell, at what rate, and at what cost?”

AIRDNA'S MARKET SCORE ADDS ANOTHER LAYER

There is another interesting piece of information that is easy to overlook.

AirDNA currently gives the Hibiscus Coast a Market Score of 53 out of 100.

Its individual components include:

• Rental demand: 56

• Seasonality: 53

• Revenue growth: 70

• Regulation: 64

AirDNA describes its Market Score as a starting point rather than an investment decision.

That is significant.

The market is showing strong revenue growth, but that does not mean the overall market should automatically be classified as a high-performing investment market.

The data is more nuanced.

And that nuance is exactly what investors should be looking for.

WHY THE SECOND DATASET LOOKS SO DIFFERENT

AirROI's current Hibiscus Coast Local Municipality dataset reports 23.2% occupancy, compared with AirDNA's 36%.

That is a difference of 12.8 percentage points.

Again, the figures shouldn't simply be averaged together.

They should prompt another question:

Why are the datasets different?

The answer is that data providers can define markets differently and use different methodologies.

AirDNA's dataset covers Airbnb, Vrbo and Booking.com and uses its own market definition for Hibiscus Coast.

AirROI's dataset is specifically focused on Airbnb listings within the Hibiscus Coast Local Municipality.

That means the two figures should be treated as different measures of short-term-rental activity rather than as competing claims about exactly the same market.

This is not unique to property.

The same principle applies to almost every form of market intelligence.

A number is only useful when you understand what it measures, where it comes from, how it was calculated and what it can — and cannot — tell you.

LOCAL KNOWLEDGE CHANGES THE INVESTMENT PICTURE

The Hibiscus Coast is not one uniform investment market.

The KZN South Coast stretches across a collection of different towns, suburbs and property environments, each with its own characteristics.

A beachfront apartment in Margate is not necessarily competing for the same guests as a suburban property in Uvongo.

A holiday apartment in Shelly Beach may have a different demand profile from a freestanding home in Ramsgate.

A property in St Michael's-on-Sea may appeal to a different guest profile from a property closer to the centre of Port Shepstone.

And a property in Port Edward is not automatically comparable with one in Margate simply because both are located on the South Coast.

Even within the same suburb, factors such as distance from the beach, sea views, property type, number of bedrooms, condition, secure parking, swimming pool, air conditioning, Wi-Fi, backup power, modern finishes, quality of photographs, guest reviews, management quality and pricing strategy can influence a property's ability to compete.

Seasonality matters too.

So do the rules governing short-term letting within the relevant sectional-title scheme, estate or municipality.

This is why market averages should be treated as context — not as a forecast for an individual property.

DON'T IGNORE THE LONG-TERM RENTAL ALTERNATIVE

The short-term-rental market should not be viewed in isolation.

An investor considering property on the KZN South Coast may have more than one potential strategy.

A property could potentially be considered for:

• Long-term residential rental

• Short-term holiday letting

• A hybrid strategy

• Personal use combined with rental income

Each strategy carries different income characteristics, operating costs, risks and management requirements.

The best strategy therefore depends on the property — not simply the location.

A property that looks attractive as a holiday rental may produce a very different result when assessed as a long-term rental.

Conversely, a property with strong holiday appeal may potentially command a premium during peak periods that would not be reflected in a standard long-term rental assessment.

The important point is to compare the strategies using realistic property-specific numbers rather than assumptions.

THE COST OF BORROWING STILL MATTERS

Property investment also takes place within a broader South African economic environment.

The South African Reserve Bank kept the policy rate at 7% at its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Statistics South Africa reported headline consumer inflation of 5.0% in June 2026.

That matters because an investment property's performance cannot be assessed purely from gross rental revenue.

Financing costs, insurance, rates, levies, maintenance, management fees, cleaning, utilities, platform fees and periods of vacancy can all influence the actual return.

A property generating R180,000 in gross annual rental income is not producing an R180,000 investment return.

Gross income is not profit.

And gross yield is not the same as net return.

WHAT CAN THIS SPECIFIC PROPERTY REALISTICALLY ACHIEVE?

This is perhaps the most important conclusion from the data.

An investor considering a holiday property should not ask:

“What does the average Hibiscus Coast Airbnb make?”

The better question is:

“What can this specific property realistically achieve?”

That requires analysing:

Location — How close is the property to the beach, amenities, restaurants and attractions?

Property type — Is it a one-, two-, three- or four-bedroom property? Apartment, townhouse or freestanding home?

Condition — Does the property compete effectively with newer or better-presented alternatives?

Amenities — Does it offer features guests actually value?

Comparable properties — What are genuinely comparable properties achieving?

Seasonality — Is demand consistent throughout the year or heavily concentrated around peak periods?

Occupancy — What is a realistic occupancy assumption for this property rather than the entire market?

Nightly rate — What rate can the property realistically achieve without pricing itself out of the market?

Operating expenses — What will rates, levies, insurance, cleaning, maintenance, management and utilities cost?

Financing — What does the investment look like after borrowing costs?

Rules and restrictions — Does the sectional-title scheme, estate or relevant regulations permit the intended short-term rental use?

Net return — What remains after the costs of generating the income have been deducted?

THE INSIGHT MANY INVESTORS MISS

Only after answering those questions does the investment case begin to take shape.

Here is perhaps the most important lesson from comparing these datasets:

A market can be growing while individual properties within that market perform very differently.

AirDNA itself makes this point by highlighting that market-level averages can hide wide variation and recommending that investors narrow their analysis to the relevant neighbourhood, property type, price tier and individual property.

That is a critical distinction.

The headline, “Hibiscus Coast short-term rentals are growing,” may be supported by AirDNA's current data.

But it does not answer:

“Will the property I'm about to buy make money?”

THE CAM PROPERTIES VIEW

Those are two completely different questions.

At CAM Properties, we believe the opportunity on the KZN South Coast should not be reduced to:

“Buy a holiday property because tourism is strong.”

That is too simplistic.

The more intelligent approach is to find the right property, in the right location, at the right price, for the right target market, with a realistic income model and with the risks properly understood before buying.

The current data provides reasons to pay attention to the Hibiscus Coast short-term-rental market.

AirDNA's figures show year-on-year growth in revenue, occupancy, daily rates and RevPAR, while active supply has also increased.

At the same time, AirROI's Hibiscus Coast Local Municipality dataset reports a substantially lower occupancy figure.

The difference does not necessarily mean one dataset is wrong.

It demonstrates why investors should be careful about relying on a single headline statistic without understanding what sits behind it.

The smartest investor isn't necessarily the person who finds the most exciting number.

It may be the person who asks:

“What does this number actually mean — and does it apply to the property I'm considering?”

That is where property data becomes property intelligence.

And that distinction matters.

CAM Properties

Local Expertise. Personal Service. Proven Results.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for general property-market information and educational purposes. Market statistics, rental figures and short-term-rental estimates can vary according to source, methodology, geographic definition, platform coverage, property type and time period.

The statistics referenced in this article are market-level figures supplied by third-party data providers and should not be interpreted as a guaranteed income forecast for any individual property.

Prospective investors should conduct property-specific due diligence and obtain appropriate professional financial, legal and tax advice before making an investment decision.